December 20, 2009

Post COP15 Part I

I am still recovering and trying to figure out what all of this means. I will do more once I get past putting up all my Christmas stuff and holiday shopping. I am close! But now it is about next steps before Mexico City and my little Sierra Club group had a very productive meeting about that tonight.

The Copenhagen Accord is posted at the UNFCCC site. The WSJ did a really good analysis of it with commentary from the Centre for Policy Research, the Chamber of Commerce and the World Wildlife Federation. The World Resources Institute also put out a legal analysis.

And may the greenwashing begin. The White House put out a list of who all thinks that the Copenhagen Accord is great. I believe all listed will be getting coal in their stocking. And no, it ain't the fictional clean kind. Also, did you know that the White House has a flicker account?! I guess this is similar to me realizing my mom has a twitter account before I did. See photos of the meeting the President Crashed in Copenhagen of world leaders.

For laughter and fun, check out the Dr. Suess interpretation of COP15 by Marcus Brigstock. Audio only at this time. It is absolutley right!

December 18, 2009

COP15 Day 14, Friday, December 18

Obama's speech



Rumor in Copenhagen is that heads of state are being asked to extend their stay until Sunday.

December 17, 2009

COP15 Day 13: Thursday, December 17

I am gone but see what happens when heads of state show up?!

Reuters article on this: U.S. to help mobilize $100 bln by 2020 in climate fight

December 15, 2009

COP15 Day 9: Tuesday, December 15 (Jen's last day)

12:42 update.

Walking into my last session then off to the airport. Quick note.

IT IS CHAOS HERE. They implemented secondary cards and the lines to get in are horrendous. People are clogging the lines and nobody can get in. I came over with my luggage, which of course has been fun, but waited in line for an hour to get in. I did and will update everyone on the activities of the day.

I am missing Arnold so please check out my fellow delegates' blog at Dominican University.

More once I get settled at the airport!

December 13, 2009

Day 8: Monday, December 14, 2009

Update at 7:51 a.m.


Today is the beginning of the last week of work. I cannot believe how quickly the time has flown by and wonder how delegations feel about the amount of work that has or has not yet been accomplished. Delegations are preparing their day around me right now. And it is kind of interesting to watch the volume of materials they are carting around and how they have it organized.

Myself, I lay awake and prayed all last night. It is clear that we need true leadership, and sadly from a nation larger than Tuvalu. We need the EU, China, Japan and the U.S. to step up to the plate and say this is a real problem and they are going to pave the way to fix it. I think back to a time when the world faced similar issues - recall how Silent Spring rocked middle class America out of its sleepy lethargy into action. And while DDT isn't completely gone, it is far less than it used to be and is not threatening entire species of birds. So what now if we have a Silent Spring due to the fact that there are no worms for the robins. No berries for the blue jays. Dang, won't be the first time I openly weep in a computer room....

As a fourth grade student, my class in Monterey, CA read Z for Zachariah. The book details the life of a young girl (16) who lives in a remote, sheltered valley after a nuclear blast. The book at the time depressed me for the finality and morbidity of it - end of life as we know it. I am reminded of that now. And I wonder if the Mayans have it right. The end of 2012 will be the end of life as we know it....

To say it simply - this conference has rocked my world and I have no idea what to do about it. And for those of you who know me well, it takes alot to make me speechless.

Becka and I talked about it last week to write an open letter to God. What would it say? It would say, "Dear God, please help our leaders have a backbone or send us to another wonderful planet like Spaceship Earth that has leaders that are willing to take a bold stand to save ourselves and the gifts you gave us." Maybe She will still hear us.

Young People

The majority of attendees I would easily say are under the age of 20. The youth delegations are huge but will be downsized as delegations are only permitted 15 entrants beginning tomorrow. What I also found interesting is that for some countries, they are represented by people around my age. For example: Marshall Islands and Papua New Guinea.







So Model UNers, know that you have a future in this stuff. Just be in the right place at the right time and you too can make history. Even better, you might even be able to pay for your student loans!

Activities of the Day

The tight security and just strange day lead to me not attending many of the sessions I planned to attend! In all, the Bella Center is going on lock down with only 7000 NGO members out of the 40,000 that asked to attend to be allowed in. Further, later in the week restrictions on plenaries will be placed to push people to overflow rooms.

In short. It is chaos.

But President of the COP Connie Hedegaard asked NGOs to keep up the pressure. She feels confident that we must do something here and that our role is to push for resolution. Of course, the audience reminded her that we won't be allowed into the building!

During the sessions I attended I learned about a regional convention called "oar-us" by the Brits in the room and the acronym AARHUS which is the United Nations Economic Commission on Europe's Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters. Passed in 1998 (into force in 2001), this Convention compels governments to allow public access to documents and proceedings about environmental issues within the international context. Imagine this as the UN's Sunshine Law. What is interesting about it is the limitation on the number of signature countries (only 44). The document also lists the controlled chemical substances that governments should report on.

Discussion during the session focused on whether the volume of civil society leaders that are recognized and given status under the Convention have any power when we are in the numbers that we are.

I also attended a session on Vietnam where they talked about their REDD program that is being partially funded by UNEP and Sweden. The nation was rapidly being deforested but they now are working on reforestation. 19% of the country's landmass is forested according to satellite imagery; down from a recorded high at 38%. REDD will support their industry and promote the citizens to protect their forests.

On the other side, they have great risks due to sea level rise. They are piloting out solutions for adaptation in three cities. One city on the Mekong Delta, will be part of the area that will be submerged; up to 58% of the delta.

They are very concerned too about changes in seasons with the cycle now unstable, uncertain and dramatically swinging from flood to drought. Rice production will be significantly decreased in the area. They are a major producer for the Philippines.

Fossil of the Day

Third Place - Canada and Saudi Arabia for receiving second to last and last in a newly published Climate Change Performance Index released by Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe. Of note, Canada was able to not be last because Saudi Arabia received a zero rating for its climate policy. SHAMEFUL!

Second Place - The EU for continuing to permit use of a 1990 baseline that allows actually for significant INCREASES in emissions. Their credibility as a climate leader is pretty well lost.


First Place - The United States (about time) for making no commitment for long-term fnancing to support developing countries adaptation efforts and the largest emitter with a laughable 4% target left over from Kyoto. Its time to update Clinton's failed policy. Come on Hillary - show the Administration that Bill was really really lowballing his policy numbers. And yes, my pun is truly intended. I am caffinated.

Day 7: Sunday, December 13

Our Day of Rest update 6 p.m.



Today is the conference day off. We had moments of sunshine on Saturday (above photo inside Bella Center) and Sunday morning and I am taking it as a sign that the negotiations are having breakthroughs, just like the sun is breaking through the cloud cover here in Copenhagen. Hope runs through my veins because that is all I have!

I spent the day sightseeing around the city with our hostess as a guide. So enjoy the photos below! I was really cold and bought my Copenhagen hat (very euro), so I am much much better.



The view from my apartment. Very cute neighborhoood.




Lakes by Gitte's house where I went for coffee.




Like we did in DC and Baltimore, Copenhagen had an exhibition with globes that were decorated by artists. Here is one where the U.S. has a mosaic sunflower over it...wish I felt so cheery!



Slightly more appropriate...




The have lots of amber stores here for crazy westerners like me. I resisted! No amber...yet. Can't promise that I won't buy more jewelry before I leave!!! ;)




My roommate Mel.





"I’m sitting on the back of a man - he is sinking under the burden -I will do everything to help him - except to step down from his back.”
Justitia, Western Goddess of Justice.



And of course, the Little Mermaid.

COP Day 6: Saturday, December 12

Update Sunday, December 13 5:04 pm



"It is ironic that we are waiting for one country to decide before the international community can move forward." Statement by the island nation of Tuvalu

Moment of my day: A very tired Becca (our delegation) asked if I had my blueberry. She meant BlackBerry. I laughed and laughed and laughed. Becca, thank you for making my day. Safe travels home!


Appeals for actions - Emotions run high

Saturday I had planned to be a protester. However, imagine me with my very thin blood so excited to spend hours out in the bitter cold. Not since the Inaugural was I so NOT excited to be out in history making events due to the cold. But I was prepared. Dressed in my 350 gear, I was ready to join the legions of people marching in support of Climate Change. However, we were told (1) due to volume of people outside, they were not sure if they would let us back in after the folks inside reached 15,000 and (2) they might secure the building due to security concerns and nobody could go in or out. SO, I chickened out and stayed inside the Bella Center.

I am glad I did.

Tuvalu once again appealed to all nations in an emotional plea for action. Mr. Fry actually admitted that he wept earlier in the day and choked up while giving his speech. The text is below. I choked up myself.



"It has been said in the media that I am trying to embarrass the country of Denmark. This is not my intention at all. Madame President, I know that you tried to visit Tuvalu, though you did not make it. Had you visited, I think you would understand our position. Our entire population lives within two meters of sea level.

"I understand that we are waiting for the U.S. Senate. It is ironic that we are waiting for one country to decide before the international community can move forward. President Obama was currently in Sweden accepting a noble prize, whether rightly or wrongly. For him to honor his noble prize, he should address the greatest threat to humanity, climate change, and the greatest threat to human security,  climate change. This is not just an issue of Tuvalu… millions of people around the world are affected. This is not just Tuvalu.

"Over the last few days I’ve received calls from all over the world, offering faith and hope that we can reach a conclusion on this issue.

"Madame President, this is not a media trip for me, I have refused to take media calls on this issue. As a humble servant of the government of Tuvalu, I have to make a strong appeal to you that we consider this matter properly. I don’t want to cause embarrassment to you or the government.

"I want to have for the leaders an option to consider a legally binding treaty. We’ve had our proposal on the table for six months. Six months! It’s not the last two days of this meeting.

"I woke this morning, and I was crying, and that’s not easy for a grown man to admit.

"The fate of my country rests in your hands."




Plea from woman to woman

One of the later speakers, Burundi, appealed woman-to-woman to President of the COP Connie Hedegaard, Minister for the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen. "You have been chosen by women of the world, like Mother Mary; chosen to save the world. Men run away from problems. And there is not an easy solution. As a woman, you need to use every skill that you have to come out with a fair and equitable agreement." I was smiling to this one. Loved it. My ongoing joke is that we as women must fix climate change as all the men will run away! This is women's work! ;)




Candlelight vigil

Inside the Bella Center, we held a candlelight vigil that was actually outside. Attending the vigil was Madam Mary Robinson, former Irish President and U.N. Human Rights Commissioner; Bill McKibben, 350 founder; and Archbiship Desmond Tutu, 1984 Nobel Peace Price laureate.







 

Moment of the vigil - last statement by Archbishop Tutu. He called on developed countries to "pay up!" But in his commical presentation, he reminded us all that people marched and the Berlin wall fell. People marched and apartheid ended. We can march and end climate change. It gives me hope. And after all, we are in Hopenhagen.

Coverage of the protests and riots

Since I was not outside for the protests, I only could watch the TVs inside and learn about it from the press. Here are a smattering of articles covering the events.
 In all, it was a peaceful demonstration with only a few extreme folks destroying it for the rest of people.

December 11, 2009

Day 5: Friday, December 11

Update 11:24 pm



I am exhausted. Finally! Slept through the night and missed my alarm Friday morning which started me off late and in a rush mode. That is no good!

Today, the COP and COP/MOP were suspended because there still is no consensus on the contact groups, so there were no plenary meetings. Instead, there was alot of rumors about activity with the biggest one for me being the NGO party - are we really going to be able to get in?! The venue doesn't take that many. My guess is that tickets will go to the cool kids and delegations like mine will be unable to get in. Guess I will wear my dancing shoes at home and enjoy my iPod while singin and dancin in the rain! Oh Gene Kelly would be proud of my pun. Man I need to get a good night's sleep!

Due to said tardiness, I was able to eat breakfast and blog out my Thursday adventures. Which was nice. Sadly Becca on our delegation wasn't feeling well so she left to sleep off her tooth infection at her dorm room (fondly called the frat house). Feel better Becca!

I decided today to attend a bunch of CDM sessions. CDM stands for clean development mechanisms which are the projects that capture carbon and offsets can be calculated off these activities and sold on the carbon market. Due to the proposed California cap and trade program, which I had convinced myself I could write comments for the OC Sierra Club Global Warming Committee, I thought I would go. After attending the sessions, I now think I will leave comments to the experts. Oh wow. It is worse than tax law.

Short story on sessions hosted by the Gold Standard Foundation and Bhutan and the World Bank:
  • They speak a different language that borders between financial language (bankese) and trade language (commercialism). It made my head hurt.

  • Capacity building is desperately needed for most of the world - or for everyone who hasn't read these documents over and over and over - training of local personnel and lawmakers to understand the needs of their people and carbon sequestration projects

  • Data collection capacity - software, hardware and trained personnel plus time to do the data capture, collection and reporting (analysis, who ever heard of that! Leave it to the World Bank.)

  • If there is no increase in carbon emission targets by Annex I countries, there is no capacity for markets to even trade. There is too much supply and not enough demand.

  • If California, or the U.S. for that matter, does a carbon market - then we need to figure out if it will have linkages (direct or indirect) to the other carbon markets. Inherently I say yes. If so, a host of other considerations that also made my head hurt. Now I remember why I ran away from anything that had dollar signs in the case study. I did like this from my notes: "if you link markets, contageous features of models will leak from one to the other."
Bhutan is working on a mitigation project in several glacial fed lakes in their mountains. Due to the altitude, all work must be done by hand. Due to rising waters, two lakes are threatening to merge. They plan to build a damn and create carbon free hydro-electricity. They have received a great deal of grants with a 40% domestic/60% grant funding mix to build the dam. Energy will be sold to India. What is interesting, is that off this structure and analysis - Bhutan has put forward the concept of "Gross National Happiness" as an index to evaluate projects. The index captures:
  1. Economic development
  2. Environmental sustainability
  3. Preservation of culture
  4. Good governance
I kinda like the concept. Not sure where it is going to go but they are investigating it.

The last session I attended was the PD Forum's session with the World Bank that I had to leave due to an aneurysm that I could feel coming on. What I got out of the session though was positive that the Bank sat down to developers and funders and candidly asked both how could they improve markets. And they had answers. Discussion is always good!

Fossil of the Day Canada times 2!  

Third place went to the EU for doing absolutely nothing when the world forum looked to them for leadership.

Second and first place went to Canada. First for keeping up with the 3 percent target and claiming it is science based. The second for Canada's Environmental Minister's comment: "Its in Canada's interest to replace the Kyoto Protocol with a new agreement."

But the good news is that CAN is making an impression. The Minister is now giving away the "Hot Air of the Day Award" which went to a Canadian group. We now hope that Jim Prentice would honor us so by giving this distinguished award for nudgydom to CAN!

Artwork at the conference

I wanted to include artwork from the conference more in my blogs. Here is one that is just as you enter. It really reminds me of Katrina and strikes a personal chord with me after my many trips to the Ninth Ward. Enjoy and check out what happens when I start messing with my aperture. Lighting for the artwork were red and blue lights hence the lighting without my flash.






December 10, 2009

Day 4: Thursday, December 10, 2009

December 10 is Human Rights Day. And per the request of EarthJustice: World, did you know that "climate change is a human rights issue."




First update 12:12 pm

We have begun to fill the Bella Center with tables and computers taken up almost exclusively. The Plenary was shut down for entrance around 11:30. Downside for me - my camera is still in there. Hope I get it back, but not a big deal if I don't. Just kinda crappy as I would like to document this conference! But I am kinda like that; leaving cameras places. UPDATE: I got my camera from the room. Find the photos included!

News - still no consensus on how to move forward. AOSIS and LCDs want a contact group. Developed nations don't; among others. Tuvalu recommended continuing the Bali Action Plan two track process. Developed/developing countries (coalition of 47) led by Brazil and China  wishes to collapse discussions into a single track. Also discussion to limit scope to Bali discussion of only Annex B rather than whole Kyoto Protocol. Debate is ongoing at this time.

Remember you can always watch live.

Update 12:30 pm Friday, December 11

Check out the photos - one at left doesn't say "CMP". Objections were raised to note it in the logo and magically VIOLA! See the pic below!



So much to write, I am very behind and apologize. Thursday was a very busy day. Essentially the entire conference is being held up in both the COP/MOP and the CMP in whether this Conference as a whole will result in a legally binding document or a political accord. Tuvalu (AOSIS) is supporting the legally binding document angle with full transparent (and possibly duplicative) process. The opposition wants to streamline tracks and limit discussion to anything outside of modifying or supplementing the Kyoto Protocol. Meanwhile, contact groups are meeting and other areas of the Bali Action Plan are being worked on. Again, great strides but if an accord is not reached, it is rather academic. Most are betting on a political accord to come out of this meeting; something will be reached, just not anything that is legally binding. But I agree with those are saying that anything is still possible. We do still have a week here.


I attended a Youth rally yesterday that was fascinating - and had a butterfly loose in the room. They had the Ministers in from Spain and the Maldives. The Spanish representative (the woman in the audience) ended up scolding the Youth, saying essentially "great that you are here. Glad to hear your voice. Why don't you choose better environmental habits, eat better food and practice safer healthy lifestyles. When you do that, we will listen." It was hard to listen and I wonder how many of the young folks understood they were being chastised and not taken seriously.


The Maldives representative was amazing. This Minister is from the flood-prone island nation that held an underwater cabinet meeting to show leaders and the world the problems the coral reef is having around the islands. "I have more hope in you than I do he negotiators," he said. He explained to the students and young people that there is not enough public demand for action and thus that is why leaders are struggling to reach an agreement. "Hopefully, when your generation chooses political leaders, you will choose based off of their climate change beliefs." He noted that when that happens, climate change agreements will no longer have difficulty in passage.

My next briefing was with EarthJustice (a great organization that I encourage you to get involved in - their tag line is "Because earth needs a good lawyer"). As happenstance would have it, they were able to host a presentation on human rights issues and the climate change debate on Human Rights Day. Some of you know that Eleanor Roosevelt is one of my idols. As the architect and champion of the UN Declaration on Human Rights, this issue is very near and dear to my heart. Plus, it was lead by lawyers so my little pea brain was really really happy!


Seychelles started off the panel, noting that when negotiations on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change started, human rights was never a concern. It began as a scientific debate and then moved into what is largely now a financial and trade discussion. Human rights seems to be an afterthought.

Island nations are faced with a difficult situation - how do you negotiate an accord when you may end up having a new population of people (mostly from island states) that are going to be significantly displaced? Further, under international contexts, these "climate change refugees" are not refugees. The definition under the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees for "refugee" is a person "owing to wellfounded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it." Meaning, people displaced by climate change due to water shortage, food shortage or loss of land (submerged or uninhabitable) are "displaced". Refugees by definition have a place to go home to. Climate change displaced persons do not - so what are they?

This very important legal question has not yet been addressed by negotiations in the COP or other bodies. Of course, I got disgusted and depressed and on the border of tears with little sleep and a long day. How could the international community really have forgotten about this issue? Because climate change is a hoax?! When international civil unrest starts happening, I will just listen to Boss-Limbaugh and it will all be okay.

The Seychelles Minister noted that he feels they delayed action as they hoped that by keeping relocation items out of the debate it would be less controversial and easier to reach an agreement. However, that wasn't the case and here we stand at this late date, already above 350 ppm.

From the perspective of Seychelles and other island nations - some countries are able to relocate people within their own countries such as Fiji and the Solomon Islands. However, Seychelles is already running into problems. The moved individuals are not being welcomed by the communities they are moving into. There are long standing tribal and cultural rifts and they are essentially making government forced conflict due to lack of habitable land as the oceans rise.

For those in LA, think of this as the entire beach community for Los Angeles moving into the mountain areas or Inland Empire. It wouldn't go well. Class warfare would result along with displacement of the communities in Inland Empire as the wealthy LA beachers moved in with cash resources and stipends from the government.

Here are several of the major issues to be faced by the legal community:
  • If a people must relocate due to lost or uninhabitable territory, what are the rights of these peoples who are under a sovereign flag of a country that once has a geographic place in the world? One of the members here is talking about buying land in India. If purchased, would that land be like the UN property in New York where it is sovereign and governed under separate law? Would India allow that? If not, where can these peoples go? If yes, what does it mean to be sovereign in this construct? My take - this debate seems like a repeat of the discussion of the creation of Israel, just in a paradigm of possible acquiescence rather than the spoils of war.

  • Even if land is under water or uninhabitable, that doesn't mean that there are not valuable assets that have been abandoned for lack of residence. Who owns the property? Oil and mineral rights? Fisheries and other aquatic life? Who polices this ownership? Maritime, property and mineral rights are a huge issue that may have foundations in existing Conventions - yet all current uninhabitable islands that are claimed by a nation still has a homeland that can act as the land's sovereign.
The Maldives pushed for this issue to be part of the Human Rights Councils agenda and Resolution 7/23 was passed in March 2008 with over 90 cosponsors (which is an unprecedented number of cosponsors). Cosponsors crossed regional and negotiation blocks showing the broad recognition that action is needed. From their Web site:

"On 25 March 2009, the Council adopted resolution 10/4 “Human rights and climate change” in which it, inter alia, notes that “climate change-related impacts have a range of implications, both direct and indirect, for the effective enjoyment of human rights …”; recognizes that the effects of climate change “will be felt most acutely by those segments of the population who are already in a vulnerable situation …”, recognizes that “effective international cooperation to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change … is important in order to support national efforts for the realization of human rights implicated by climate change-related impacts”, and affirms that “human rights obligations and commitments have the potential to inform and strengthen international and national policy-making in the area of climate change”. In resolution 10/4, the Council decided to hold a panel discussion on the relationship between climate change and human rights at its eleventh session in order to contribute to the realization of the goals set out in the Bali Action Plan."

So why are we still talking about this? Because nothing has been done yet to integrate these concerns into the Copenhagen draft document. EarthJustice distributed language they are trying to get into the document and are willing to talk to anyone.


The last session I attended was a Kenyan overview of what adaptation and mitigation actions they are taking. Again, teary-eyed Jen sat in the back and just listened. Starting my undergraduate work at Kansas State University, I am intimately aware of the work of the Grain Sciences world and the lack of knowledge that most farmers have on good farming techniques that can increase their yield without harming the earth (their future crops). A beautiful film of some of the projects that they are doing was shared. I will try to get ahold of the film.

Climate change has dramatically changed the rain cycles where it is flood > drought > flood > drought without predictable cycles in Kenya. Adaptation techniques have included holding ponds for runoff, fertilizing, and raised beds with irrigation systems. This infrastructure for education and irrigation has not yet been established. To do this takes financing - and begins the financing debate which is set at a paltry $10 billion right now for "fast start" money. Likely, $10 billion is what ONE NATION will need to successfully accomplish adaptation, mitigation and capacity building. Also, can't farmers get credit for using carbon intensive techniques bringing carbon safely and stored into soil? If so, how do you do this? Agriculture has not yet been adequately taken into account for carbon-trade mechanisms.

My take at the end of Thursday is "what's missing from Copenhagen? Substance."

December 9, 2009

Day 3: Wednesday, December 9, 2009 Updated full day news

Update 4:13 pm

The big news is two specific stories:
  • Although many are not surprised, the Guardian leaked "Danish papers" are highly flavoring the discussions and mistrust is ruling the day. According to unnamed sources quoted in ECO, "I'm aware of four different initiatives." And of course the biggest issue, "And the last thing we want is a beautify contest over competing texts."

  • A breakdown of process in the COP meeting over next steps to address whether to proceed with the Kyoto Protocol or a separate process. A contact group would be established to consider 5 proposals and determine next steps. The conflict was between AOSIS and African least develop countries and Saudi Arabia/China/India and other Arab states. They suspended the meeting until the issue was resolved (reconvened at 3 pm).
Twelve hours later update - 4:29 am Thursday morning




Tuvalu set the stage for being a leader and changing the tone of the conference. The fourth smallest country in the world, this small Polynesian island nation of no more than 12,000 people made an incredible splash at the conference. They sit 15 feet above sea level on a coral atoll and during this historic speech noted, "We are here to seal the deal. To sign a legally binding document for the survival of Tuvalu."




Now dubbed the Copenhagen Protocol by Tuvalu, the supplemental accord reached here would augment updates to the Kyoto protocol. Under the proposal by the nation, both legally binding documents would hold countries accountable for actions to reduce emissions to levels  for a 1.5 degree C temperature increase.

After this historic speech given by Tuvalu's longtime climate adviser Ian Fry, negotiations broke down over next steps for discussion of the treaty. Specifically the recommendation supported by Tuvalu and Grenada was to establish a contact group to allow for transparent negotiations. Much of this posturing precipitated from the leak of the Danish papers that I noted earlier (4 pm post).

Fifteen countries blocked discussion of the proposal in support of legally binding documents. Instead these countries including China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa, are seeking a political document out of these talks, delaying any legal discussion until Mexico City's meeting next year or beyond. Further, the G77 and African nations began to fracture under the political pressure with the island nations (AOSIS) standing firm. Without consensus, President of the COP, Dane Minister Connie Hedegaard, suspended the COP plenary at the request of Tuvalu and an agreement was not reached during the day. NGOs protested the suspension of plenary in a great showing of force supporting Tuvalu with signs "Tuvalu is the real deal." Plenary is scheduled to begin again at 10 am; it is unclear what accords were reached over night.

Two other notable speakers presented during the plenary. CAN International was represented by Aditi Kapoor and ECO Singapore-an, Amira Karim represented the Youth Delegation spoke before the COP Plenary on the importance of this meeting. I have to note that the Youth speaker was poised and delivered a very strong message. I am honestly proud of the number of young people here.

Ms. Kapoor, an Indian national, noted that "the safety of our planet is not negotiable." She concluded her statement by saying, "When the story of the struggle to save the world from climate change is written, how will you be judged?  Will you be the ones with good intentions but who sadly lacked the strength and willpower to live their dreams? Will your children and grandchildren look back in shame that you missed this opportunity?  OR will you emerge as the hero who saved the day and agreed a fair, ambitious and binding agreement from Copenhagen?" Ms. Karim dubbed the developed country activities (Danish papers) as "tantamount to carbon colonialism" and really put an exclamation mark on her remarks by concluding, "We face an unprecedented challenge that calls for unity and responsibility. It is not enough to say “yes we can” but rather “yes we can, yes we must, yes we will.”"


In other news, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson spoke to a packed room here in Copenhagen. I was able to stand outside and watch on the monitors while others in our delegation made it into the room. Administrator Jackson observed, "We owe it to ourselves, our fellow nations, and future generations to rise to this moment of challenge – and set a course towards sustainability, peace, prosperity and opportunity. For President Obama and the United States, that global effort starts at home. We have been hard at work on confronting climate change, through a wide range of initiatives – some you may have heard about, and others you may not have. We have been fighting to make up for lost time. In less than 11 months since taking office, we have done more to promote clean energy and prevent climate change than happened in the last 8 years."

A new development - a RAY OF THE DAY award!

Second place was awarded to Russian Federation for proposing that their announced reductions of 20-25% were "an important political statement" hedging on any legally binding target. First place was a tie between Canada and Croatia opposing the 1990 base year for basing emission levels.

But after the actions of the day, the first time ever awards "Ray of Day" award to recognize countries that "substantially advance progress in climate change talks" was given to Tuvalu. The actual, true member of the Tuvaluvian delegation was given a white feather halo to wear to signify the award during the ceremonies. He was slightly mortified. And we were given a new song to sing, although not as catchy as the Fossil of the Day theme.

Other coverage

And because I am still just trying to swallow Sarah's commentary in the Washington Post on climate change, here is a further opinion piece saying not only is she a credible critic but she's right. I wonder how she can be either when she doesn't read the newspaper that she is printed in? Thank goodness America is open to all opinions; just wish some day we can have a rational debate. Gore's response on MSNBC.

    Day 2 COP15: Tuesday, December 8, 2009

    Day 2 COP15: December 8, 2009 (written December 9, 2009, 9:46 am)


    Insomnia finally solved (a bit - six hours of sleep), but still working at night at my real job and figuring out how to find real food here. The food at Bella Center is Danish food. Need I say more? I am going to try something different because coffee and Coke and fruit and Snickers is not always the food of champions. Especially after three days.



    The technology support here is amazing. There are several very large computer rooms that are available to delegates and they even have stations set up for Skype (which cracks me up since I have been resisting using it). So for day 3, dumped the laptop; especially after my converter broke. My thoughts though, as this is a conference on climate change after all, is how much electricity does it take to power these huge computer stations? Or the bajillion laptops in sessions being held here? If nothing else though, it is clear that the internet age has been achieved and Dell is doing well at this conference!

    I will begin to answer the question that several of my readers asked early on - is this Conference anything like Model UN? I will elaborate further, but the short answer is yes, incredibly similar. The only real difference is the volume of people and strong presence of NGOs and media. But more on that later.

    The media has been doing a great job of coverage. The NY Times and Christian Science Monitor really have been spot on. So if you have a need for additional background, I really would direct you to their stories.

    For Day 2, I attended the SBI Plenary and heard a great deal of statements on ongoing concerns about duplication and overlap of agenda tasks between the multiple tracks. Also the ongoing sentiment in the SBI was that capacity building and education generally have not been as robust as possible. Partially, this is due to the lack of up to date communications by Annex I countries on what they have done to date and how. They also noted that lack of financing is to blame. Technology transfer and the lack thereof is another ongoing concern. In all, I think the lack of Kyoto compliance is coming to bear at the conference and may flavor ongoing debates for the KP and SBI tracks.

    The delegation caucuses are well established here. Normal groups like G77, Least Developed Countries, the African Block, EU, etc. But fun new names like the Umbrella Group (Australia, Canada, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Russia, Ukraine and the USA) and the Environmental Integrity Group (Mexico, South Korea and Switzerland).

    Interesting notes from press briefings - CAN-Europe noted that the EU actually can do more financially with their commitments as emission reductions have made certain compliance items cheaper and the financial strength of the Euro has grown. Others noted that the continuing rhetoric that nothing can be accomplished at this COP has been done before. "We were told no agreement could be achieved at Montreal in 2005. Told that Bali's road map would be impossible. We have two weeks and this is the first time that heads of states will be attending. If we can come to an agreement, lawyers can turn that into text," noted Steven Guilbeault of Equitterre.



    Most depressing press conference I have attended in a very long time: UNEP and IPCC's update on AR5.
    According to science models and data sets using over 24,000 studies, with climate staying where it is today (no change), AR5 work has found:
    • Arctic ice will be gone between 2030-2050.
    • By 2090, most of the world will experience 4-5 degree C increases with arctic regions up to 7 degrees.
    • Stand at 387 ppm today which is 29 percent higher than it has been in 800,000 years
    • There is thinning of ice in Greenland and Antarctica but some new build up that they wish to study further
    • At zero emisisons starting in 2020, sea level will still rice
    • With geoengenerring activities, they still cannot make the ocean acidification go away and any efforts would quickly be undermined with the geoengineering not continuing
    There will be some very good charts coming out of the AR5 report that will be helpful for policy people!

    But here is a great quote from Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, when asked about Saudi Arabia's use of the email/hack situation to question the scientific validity of climate change: "I would have been concerned if they didn't bring it up. Oil and politics mix well; I am not as sure if oil and science mixes well."

    Fossil of the Day Awards, brought to you by CAN.

    I really enjoy these I have to say and had the theme song in my head all last night!

    December 7, 2009

    Day 1: Opening and plenaries


    Day 1 COP15: Monday, December 7 11:47 pm


    Today was a whirlwind including my body's inability to figure out what time it was and when to go to sleep - insomnia solved by Benadryl. Then an early morning over to the Bella Center via the bus which I now figured out, and then the eternal search for coffee. With my fellow League of Women Voters delegates, we headed off to the Opening Plenary.

    Security here has been very tight. To get into the plenaries with heads of states, you needed tickets and no bags. Which means that folks like me (non-governmental organization delegate and lugging a bag with a laptop) went to the overflow room. Sitting on the floor, we were absolutely inspired by the opening movie short produced by our host country and the Danish Girls Choir.

    The Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, began the opening speeches simply noting that "we have to change." The Mayor of Copenhagen, Her Excellency Ritt BjerregÃ¥rd, noted during the Opening Plenary that cities contribute 75% of emissions and attribute to 50% of the population - they must be part of the solution. "Mayors from the largest cities are ready..." Copenhagen's goal is to the first carbon neutral city by 2025. She implored delegates to "seal the deal" while delegates were in her city dubbed "Hopenhagen" for the Conference. Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change urged action by delegates. We have "eight days to get ready with a  package...The time for formal statements is over. Turn the work that has been done into action."

    During the day we visited booths, attended side events and got the lay out of the beautiful Bella Center.We heard from some really wonderful speakers. We attended briefings for Women’s Environment & Development Organization, Carbon Action Network International and the Third World Network. Overall, the briefings covered ground established in previous meetings. But several notable items really struck me.
    • Bernaditas de Castro Muller, Lead negotiator, G77 countries plus China, made me think in a new way today (making my lawyer pea brain work). She asked a reporter, "If sea levels rise, who do you sue? We can only evaluate obligations of nations - to measure, report and verify emission commitments." She brings up the ongoing issue of making a legal document (an update of the Kyoto Protocol) verses a political agreement. I also wonder without trade sanctions whether these agreements have any incentive at all for compliance - but that is my age old discussion of international law as gentlemens' agreements and not binding law. Side discussion for another post.
    • Martin Khor, Executive Director of South Centre, an intergovernmental think tank of developing countries, noted that for developing countries to have the ability to have sustainable economies - Annex I countries (Kyoto parties) will have to reduce their emissions 300%. Otherwise, a 80% commitment (that is made today) equates to a 60-70% reduction by developing countries while they are trying to improve their infrastructure. His full paper is available at the Third World Network site. Mr. Khor continued about how the conference needs to return to the Bali Action Plan as the fundamental basis for this discusison instead of making new issues up by questioning whether one comprehensive new international legal document should be made and the role of developing countries. I want to learn more about this aspect (IB1 and IB2 issues)...more later.

    Today's Fossil of the Day, a series of awards that are given out by Carbon Action Network International each day of the negotiation, was given to the Annex I countries for their continued lack of ambition to set climate emission targets that are in line with the outlined scientific targets identified by IPCC. First runners up were Austria, Finland and Sweden for their attempts to hide carbon emissions from the timber industry. Second runner up was Canada for sticking with their 3% reduction target. The door prize was given to Saudi Arabia for questioning the validity of climate science on the plenary floor.

    Overall, the first day was incredibly encouraging but also highlights the chasm that the negotiations need to overcome between Annex I countries and developing countries. Today was a level setting day bringing together negotiators and reminding them where they left off after Barcelona (last negotiation). But today also included hints of ongoing debate over the climate scientists email leak/hack and whether the science is questionable, in addition to developed country efforts to modify how carbon emissions and offsets will be counted. Simply, the position of most NGOs that attended was that developed countries cannot have their cake and eat it too. But that doesn't mean that the developed world won't try.

    December 6, 2009

    Day 0: COP15

    Day 0, Sunday, December 6, 1:56 pm (Copenhagen):

    This is the day before the conference begins. I am sitting in the Internet cafe here in the Bella Center due to a security breach which means that they cleared the registration area and will not allow us to leave the building. I am waiting for two women from my delegation to make it into registration. At this rate, I can stay here the rest of the day. At least I am not outside.

    Unlike most people, I am fine with being shuffled around due to security concerns. I am desensitized. After the bomb sniffing dogs in the area of my old building in Washington, DC and the gates for the WTO protesters - heck this is easy! I am glad that the Danish officials are taking this seriously and doing everything that they can to keep us safe. I admit - when they started quarantining off the area, I thought it was a head of state coming in!

    So the Bella Center has a large windmill out front. Very nice show of the wind power here in Denmark. There is definitely a brisk wind. Worse than those of Oklahoma mom! I was lost this morning looking for over an hour for the COP15 bus leaving from Central Station. Nobody knew about it. Concierges, the help desk - nobody. So after I found coffee (an imperative for my body to function) I relented into a carbon rich choice of a taxi. Of course, as it departed I saw the bus! Will figure my transportation aspect out by tomorrow. While a bike is still my preference, the 4 miles may be a bit for this out of shape body.

    My apartment is a quaint three bedroom apartment owned by a family that cares about their energy consumption. The Brown's have three small children and they have implemented smart technologies to enable better energy efficiency such as a motion sensor in the bathroom and a fan that only turns on when the humidity is too high. Very nice solutions that are easy to do and help everyone. My roommate will be sleeping in the girl's castle. I am slightly jealous.

    As an entertaining side note, from the apartment to the train station you must walk through an area of sex shops. I am reminded that this IS Denmark and of my infamous trip to New York where I met my husband (just remember that the Village is an interesting place for little girls from Kansas who have never seen anything like that before). If you didn't see my post on Facebook, the local prostitute union is offering free services to Conference delegates. How kind of them to help boost the spirits of negotiators.

    My sadness is over missing Obama. I am leaving early so that I won't miss my aunt's birthday for the second year. He is now coming in on the 18th. My guess is because our Congressional Delegation will likely be stuck in Washington, DC for the health care vote. It will be interesting to see if Sen. Kerry and Speaker Pelosi will be able to make it over here. But I did see him at the Inaugural and it is not like in these 25,000 people he would yell "Searfoss get up here." That only happens when Dr. Tuckson needs me to write a letter!

    So far I met Andrew from the Alliance. Cool thing is that he helped Vice President Gore with his latest book doing some of the energy analysis. The folks next to me here in the Climate Kitchen are from OxFam. During my delay, I sat with the daughter of the Bostswana U.N. Ambassador. She works in finance and is here to see the festivities and how the event progresses. I am very happy to know so many connected people who are passionate about this issue are here.

    I am not sure if you read the editorial in the Washington Post. I find it quite amusing. It calls for a "Green Free December" with no greenwashing and asks an important question: "And in the 1960s, civil rights activists didn't ask bigoted Southern governors and sheriffs to consider "10 Ways to Go Integrated" at their convenience." I agree it is time for us to do more, but getting that done is a big deal. Which is partly why the Sierra Club of Orange County began Juicing Orange County. I posted the latest press release on the survey findings of what the 34 cities in Orange County are doing to reduece their carbon emissions. Its no longer about trivial lights in the darkness of denial; its about action by larger entities including local and state governments and businesses.

    4:33 pm
    I now have figured out the bus and am thinking a jet lag nap sounds about right. Credentialed and official feels good. Next is still finding a phone that works over here.

    Worth the read - for the charts and photos
     WSJ: Obama, in Shift, Expects Climate Deal at Summit



    Caption: Nepal's top politicians held a cabinet meeting on Mount Everest to highlight the dangers of climate change ahead of international talks.European Pressphoto Agency

        

    So I am going to call it a night. Oh, funny words! I nearly forgot. So far: "salty buscuits" = Ritz crackers; there are more I just forgot. I love being in Europe.

    December 5, 2009

    Juicing Orange County press release

    If you didn't get this on my distribution, here is the Sierra Club's press release. I am so proud that I remembered to send it out and of the response! OC Register story.

    For Immediate Release                        Contacts:     Chuck Buck, (714) 773-1190   
    December 5, 2009                                Paul Carlton, (949) 661-9505

    ORANGE COUNTY IS TAKING ENERGY REDUCTION SERIOUSLY
    Cities Are Taking Actions To Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Save Taxpayer Dollars

    ORANGE COUNTY, CA – As world leaders prepare to tackle the next stage of international negotiations addressing carbon emission limits and trading, city leaders in Orange County, California are not waiting for a mandate. Results from a forthcoming report by the Orange County Global Warming Committee of the Angeles Chapter of the Sierra Club shows that cities across the county, both large and small, are taking actions to reduce energy consumption which in turn reduces the County’s carbon footprint.

    “Results are in from 26 cities in the County. Large and small, city governments are looking for creative ways to decrease their energy consumption”, said Paul Carlton, Co-Chair of the Orange County Global Warming Subcommittee.

    Overall, the survey found that cities are tackling the low hanging fruit to reduce energy consumption and costs where possible. For example, nearly all survey respondents are using LED and CFLs in city facilities, street lights and traffic lights. Also, cities are engaging in modest civic education about how taxpayers can reduce their carbon footprint and build greener. Highlights of the findings are noted below:
    • 80% of respondents have taken or are in the process of conducting an energy audit. An energy audit is the first step for a city to assess how much energy it consumes and to evaluate what measures to take to make the city more energy efficient.

    • 76% of respondents have identified a responsible party for energy efficiency. Of the 19 cities with parties identified, seven have committees and eleven have individual city staff assigned to the duty. One has both an oversight committee and a city official working on energy efficiency.

    • 83% of respondents have installed motion detectors in city buildings to turn of interior lights when they are not needed. Nearly all cities noted that they have employee policies to turn off lights and electronics over night and weekends.

    • Nearly all respondents are tracking fuel and investigating hybrid or alternative fuel vehicles. Today, less than 25% of most city fleets are green vehicles.

    • 40% of respondents have implemented city green purchasing policies, where city purchasers evaluate goods and services with reduced environmental impacts compared to those with baseline impacts.

    • 31% of respondents have an employee telecommuting policy that is one strategy to decrease employee carbon emissions from commuting to and from work.
    Chuck Buck, Co-Chair, Orange County Global Warming Subcommittee, further noted, “I am highly encouraged by our findings so far. The results show us that local leadership isn’t waiting for Sacramento or Washington, DC to dictate how we can curb carbon emissions. In light of the recent California Air Resources Board’s proposed cap and trade program, we are reporting some real actions by city governments as we consider how their efforts will play into the state program.”

    The Orange County Global Warming Committee plans to release the full report in Spring 2010. For additional information, please visit http://angeles.sierraclub.org/ocglobalwarming.

    About the Sierra Club
    The report is the culmination of the Juicing Orange County campaign which is an effort to engage city leaders in Orange County to enact responsible, climate aware policies and programs. This program is led by the Orange County Global Warming Committee of the Angeles Chapter of the Sierra Club. Since 1892, the Sierra Club has been working to protect communities, wild places and the planet itself.

    ###

    I made it in! Start of the oddessey

    So far, I realized my packing skills are poor when you are on limited sleep. BUT, I actually made it to the airport on time, survived LAX security and did my amazing "sleep on the plane" treatment which worked! For a 10 hour flight, I slept through most of it. My apartment here in Copenhagen is cute. I am in the Vesterbro neighborhood which has some cute shops. More on my stay later.

    "Action on climate change requires the current generation to make decisions about the reallocation of resources that will have profound implications for future generations, for distribution within generations, including among those living now, and for the plant and its entire species." Nicholas Stern, The Global Deal.

    This next weeks starts the negotiation of my era. For others, the tearing down of the wall or the fall of the Soviet Union will be what "commemorates" Generation X. For me, it is this treaty. Stern continues in his book, "fighting world poverty and tackling climate change, must be tackled as an integrated whole by a united world." While poverty has been a continuing issue since the start of humanity, this new aspect of international interaction does not permit inaction any longer. We will see what the strength of world leaders will be to do something.

    For those of my friends and family who continue to say, there is no since for Climate Change, I honestly can't say I care. So enjoy the snow in Houston that apparently happened. John - hope you were eating it up! Snowing in Houston in December. Love it. But whether the science on climate change is correct or not doesn't change the fact that we are spewing known carcinogens into the air. It doesn't change the fact that there is not enough oil or coal to fuel the entire world for the rest of human existence. It doesn't change the fact that our oceans are warming. Our polar regions are warming. And darn it, mosquitoes are taking over. If we don't watch it, we are setting up the next world leaders to be cockroaches and mosquitoes. And yes, some could say that this already describes American lawmakers.

    Since my last installment, there have been a flurry of items that have been released. But I first want to address the issue that I think is big - but as a lawyer this minutiae things are what I love. It may not be big. So India and China put out their commitments, as did President Obama. All of them use the 2005 carbon emissions level as the basis.

    Earlier reports I included in my blog about the American commitment were incorrect. From the White House Press Release, "the President is prepared to put on the table a U.S. emissions reduction target in the range of 17% below 2005 levels in 2020 and ultimately in line with final U.S. energy and climate legislation.  In light of the President’s goal to reduce emissions 83% by 2050, the expected pathway set forth in this pending legislation would entail a 30% reduction below 2005 levels in 2025 and a 42% reduction below 2005 in 2030."

    So where does this compare to the House and Senate bill along with the Barcelona agreement?



    To standardize things, lets use EIA numbers for carbon emissions (btw, they have such a great site).


    World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2006
    (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide)


    Country
    1980
    1990
    2000
    2005
    2006
    United States
    4,788.65
    5,028.46
    5,860.38
    5,994.29
    5,902.75
    China
    1,460.20
    2,293.39
    2,966.52
    5,429.30
    6,017.69
    India
    293.17
    583.25
    1,012.34
    1,194.01
    1,293.17


    I earlier went over the House and Senate legislation along with where the current treaty text stands.

    Well the math is depressing. And remember, I went to law school and not math school so if my algebra doesn't make sense, let me know!


    1990 levels U.S. commitment
    1990
    2005
    EQIVALENT
    Reduction over 2005 levels
    League
    0.75
    5,028.46
    5,994.29
    0.629156
    37.08%
    25%
    House
    0.83
    5,028.46
    5,994.29
    0.696266
    30.37%
    17%
    Senate
    0.8
    5,028.46
    5,994.29
    0.6711
    32.89%
    20%
    COP
    0.75
    5,028.46
    5,994.29
    0.629156
    37.08%
    25%

    0.6
    5,028.46
    5,994.29
    0.503325
    49.67%
    40%







    2005 levels
    1990
    2005
    EQIVALENT
    Reduction over 1990 levels
    Obama
    0.83
    5,028.46
    5,994.29
    0.98942
    1.06%
    17%
    China
    0.6
    2,293.39
    5,429.30
    1.420423
    -42.04%
    40%
    China
    0.55
    2,293.39
    5,429.30
    1.302055
    -30.21%
    45%

    So, what Obama committed to was a 1% reduction over 1990 levels. I am depressed. My League is asking for 25 percent reduction which would be 37% over 2005 levels. There is a reason they changed the discussion for China. There reduction is between 130-140% over 1990 levels. This is great. BUT, America - man we are hosing the world.

    More later...wading through the list of all the events and still trying to figure out what I want to do about registration. I am told it is going to be a zoo.
    • Total registrations for COP 15 may well exceed 25,000, against prior expectations of under 20,000.
    • The UNFCCC main office in Bonn is still struggling to finish data entry of several thousand name.
    • Those not yet in the registration database may not be able to register until Sunday afternoon or possibly Monday afternoon.
    We sent our delegation in on October 26, so I am hoping we are good! More tonight (it is 4:44 am here).
    j