"Action on climate change requires the current generation to make decisions about the reallocation of resources that will have profound implications for future generations, for distribution within generations, including among those living now, and for the plant and its entire species." Nicholas Stern, The Global Deal.
This next weeks starts the negotiation of my era. For others, the tearing down of the wall or the fall of the Soviet Union will be what "commemorates" Generation X. For me, it is this treaty. Stern continues in his book, "fighting world poverty and tackling climate change, must be tackled as an integrated whole by a united world." While poverty has been a continuing issue since the start of humanity, this new aspect of international interaction does not permit inaction any longer. We will see what the strength of world leaders will be to do something.
For those of my friends and family who continue to say, there is no since for Climate Change, I honestly can't say I care. So enjoy the snow in Houston that apparently happened. John - hope you were eating it up! Snowing in Houston in December. Love it. But whether the science on climate change is correct or not doesn't change the fact that we are spewing known carcinogens into the air. It doesn't change the fact that there is not enough oil or coal to fuel the entire world for the rest of human existence. It doesn't change the fact that our oceans are warming. Our polar regions are warming. And darn it, mosquitoes are taking over. If we don't watch it, we are setting up the next world leaders to be cockroaches and mosquitoes. And yes, some could say that this already describes American lawmakers.
Since my last installment, there have been a flurry of items that have been released. But I first want to address the issue that I think is big - but as a lawyer this minutiae things are what I love. It may not be big. So India and China put out their commitments, as did President Obama. All of them use the 2005 carbon emissions level as the basis.
Earlier reports I included in my blog about the American commitment were incorrect. From the White House Press Release, "the President is prepared to put on the table a U.S. emissions reduction target in the range of 17% below 2005 levels in 2020 and ultimately in line with final U.S. energy and climate legislation. In light of the President’s goal to reduce emissions 83% by 2050, the expected pathway set forth in this pending legislation would entail a 30% reduction below 2005 levels in 2025 and a 42% reduction below 2005 in 2030."
So where does this compare to the House and Senate bill along with the Barcelona agreement?
To standardize things, lets use EIA numbers for carbon emissions (btw, they have such a great site).
| World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2006 | |||||
| (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide) | |||||
| Country | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2005 | 2006 |
| United States | 4,788.65 | 5,028.46 | 5,860.38 | 5,994.29 | 5,902.75 |
| China | 1,460.20 | 2,293.39 | 2,966.52 | 5,429.30 | 6,017.69 |
| India | 293.17 | 583.25 | 1,012.34 | 1,194.01 | 1,293.17 |
I earlier went over the House and Senate legislation along with where the current treaty text stands.
Well the math is depressing. And remember, I went to law school and not math school so if my algebra doesn't make sense, let me know!
| 1990 levels U.S. commitment | 1990 | 2005 | EQIVALENT | Reduction over 2005 levels | ||
| League | 0.75 | 5,028.46 | 5,994.29 | 0.629156 | 37.08% | 25% |
| House | 0.83 | 5,028.46 | 5,994.29 | 0.696266 | 30.37% | 17% |
| Senate | 0.8 | 5,028.46 | 5,994.29 | 0.6711 | 32.89% | 20% |
| COP | 0.75 | 5,028.46 | 5,994.29 | 0.629156 | 37.08% | 25% |
| 0.6 | 5,028.46 | 5,994.29 | 0.503325 | 49.67% | 40% | |
| 2005 levels | 1990 | 2005 | EQIVALENT | Reduction over 1990 levels | ||
| Obama | 0.83 | 5,028.46 | 5,994.29 | 0.98942 | 1.06% | 17% |
| China | 0.6 | 2,293.39 | 5,429.30 | 1.420423 | -42.04% | 40% |
| China | 0.55 | 2,293.39 | 5,429.30 | 1.302055 | -30.21% | 45% |
So, what Obama committed to was a 1% reduction over 1990 levels. I am depressed. My League is asking for 25 percent reduction which would be 37% over 2005 levels. There is a reason they changed the discussion for China. There reduction is between 130-140% over 1990 levels. This is great. BUT, America - man we are hosing the world.
More later...wading through the list of all the events and still trying to figure out what I want to do about registration. I am told it is going to be a zoo.
- Total registrations for COP 15 may well exceed 25,000, against prior expectations of under 20,000.
- The UNFCCC main office in Bonn is still struggling to finish data entry of several thousand name.
- Those not yet in the registration database may not be able to register until Sunday afternoon or possibly Monday afternoon.
j
