November 26, 2009

China announces targets

Ahead of Copenhagen, China sets targets to slow emissions growth | csmonitor.com

They finally came out: "Ten days before a climate change summit opens in Copenhagen, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases announced it would emit between 40 and 45 percent less carbon per unit of economic output by 2020 than it did in 2005." So since legislation and the treaty is at 1990 levels, where does this measure up?

"Between 1990 and 2005, according to official figures, Beijing cut carbon emissions relative to economic activity by 47 percent." But that doesn't seem right - right?! China is now the biggest emitter so how could it be cutting its emissions earlier this decade?

As I suspected, there is a different story here. Check out this graph on the BBC from 2005 which shows China's emissions in 2002.

For better data...when all else fails, go to the Congressional Research Service (CRS). According to CRS:

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (metric tons CO2e) in 2005
China 7,527
United States 7,282

"Using [International Energy Agency (IEA)]’s GHG emission estimates and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, China’s GHG intensity fell more than two-thirds from 1990 to 2005 (whether calculated by GDP using exchange rates or GNI using purchasing power parities)."

"According to IEA estimations of China’s GHG emissions, from 1990 to 2005 the total amount of CO2 increased from 2545 MMTCO2 to 5843 MMTCO2 (almost 144%), while total GHG emissions increased from 3905 MMTCO2e to 7527 MMTCO2e (152%)."

So, 2005 due to the incredible increase in China's growth in greenhouse gas emissions is a better year to set a target than 1990. This is good news! And our lesson here, don't trust official Chinese figures.