November 30, 2009

Outstanding major issues - saving the RIGHT forests

New acronym for you (more COP speak) - REDD - Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

As you probably know, one of the greatest repositories of carbon are forests and peat bogs. The concern raised by an international cap and trade program is that countries will protect fast growing forests (likely replanted and not indigenous) and other "spectacles" and not the big carbon storing forests, like peat forests.
See the story in the New York Times today on Indonesian forests.

The conference in Copenhagen is divided into two groups - the "COP" or "Conference of Parties" and the "CMP" or "Conference of Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol". The later CMP is to take up deforestation which accounts for approximately 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. For certain countries, halting deforestation is considered the largest and most effective way to curb emissions.

In the book I am reading, The Global Deal: Climate Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity, Stern's blueprint weaves in techniques for adaptation and mitigation together and notes that deforestation is key to bringing financially responsible policies to address climate change.
  • "The first is to make much more efficient use of energy."
  • "The second is to halt deforestation."
  • "The third is to put existing (or close to existing) technologies to work quickly."
  • "The fourth is to invest strongly in new technologies."
(Citation - Sterns, Nicholas. The Global Deal. Public Affairs: New York. (2009). p. 46.)

The proposed policy described well in the NY Times article and goes as follows: "Developing nations that preserve forests would be paid with carbon credits that they could sell to industrialized nations seeking to meet emissions reduction targets. Though the program’s specifics will probably take months or years to be worked out, more than a dozen projects of the United Nations program are already under way in Indonesia, backed by such diverse entities as conservation groups, government[s], [investment banks] and  [..] companies."

As I am assigned portions of mitigation for the conference, I will be learning about this aspect a great deal!

November 29, 2009

Is it the last straw - climate change effecting wine?!

I daresay, an issue becomes very real for many Americans when it begins to effect our liquor. Vigneron Independent, a French vintners association, is warning that their wines will become more "Mediterranean". According to an expert cited in Business Week, "Climate change has sped up harvests in Burgundy, altered the taste of Alsatian wines and disrupted hydration patterns of grapes grown along France's Mediterranean coast." The association president notes that we may begin seeing wines grown in Britain and Scandinavia. There is an upside though, again noted in Business Week: ""To be really honest, we benefit from global warming because we don't have to chaptalize our wines any more," said Jacky Martinon, a winemaker in Burgundy, referring to a process of injecting sugar into wine."

Wine Spectator had an entire issue dedicated to green wine making. It is a really good issue and Wine Spectator one of my favorite monthly periodicals.

COP15 news of the day:

November 28, 2009

Health effects of climate change

I noted in  my Thanksgiving Update that I would turn next to the recent articles in the Lancet that discuss new models that show direct links between health and climate change. As the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, former Governor Kathleen Sebelius (another great Kansan) noted, "As greenhouse gas emissions go down, so do deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases." What is novel about the series of six papers is that it does not just track the increase of infectious disease like Dengue or West Nile, instead it models out what most consider "industrialized nation health issues" like heart attacks.


So what do we know. Climate change promotes environments that mosquitoes love. Thus, we are already seeing dramatic increases of Dengue and Typhoid in the Philippines. From this 2008 article, "changes in cholera, typhoid fever and malaria have been predicted due to the changing pattern of rainy season." In a recent BBC story (video, Nov. 9, 2009), the spread of Dengue is at "almost epidemic levels" in Jakarta as a newly emerging/resurging disease. The sad aspect of the story is that they are fogging insecticide that will have its own health effect on the people of Jakarta.

The World Health Organization began warning the world about the effects of climate change nearly two decades ago. (Overview here by Washington Post; full list of WHO publications) As an American health professional, I can say that the amount of literature used in the U.S. is small and the community isn't aware of most of the literature or issues because most feel that it is an issue for third-world countries. But that is changing.

It is clear that the new Secretary has been pushing the issue of climate change into the American medical community. On November 25, a joint release of the Lancet study lead to a cross-continent launch event of the findings. Generally, the study conducted in industrialized and developing nations, showed that mitigation of greenhouse gas emission improved human health. Focusing on key sectors that produce significant carbon emission, the series of six papers walk through mitigation techniques that benefits human health. These areas are household energy use, urban land transport, electricity generation, food and agriculture, and short-lived green-house pollutants. The most compelling aspect of the studies for me is that I finally have a counter argument that "mitigation is too expensive." Now, this study allows me to say, carbon mitigation decreases the need for costly health care services and enables more citizens to be able bodied laborers. These findings will enable new discussions about cost due to previously unpredicted expensive health outcomes of doing nothing in all countries - including the United States.

Executive summary.

Key findings:
  • Replacement of cook stoves in developing countries could significantly reduce air pollution and the risk for acute respiratory tract infections in young children and chronic respiratory and heart disease in adults. An estimated 1 million children are dying globally each year due to respiratory infections induced or exacerbated by inefficient burning of solid fuels. The estimated effect by 2020 of the proposed Indian stove program would cut the above disease prevalence by a sixth in the nation and halve the country's cancer cases.
  • More foot and bike travel in London could reduce stroke and heart disease by 10-20 percent; breast cancer by 12-13 percent; dementia by 8 percent; and depression by 5 percent.
  • The same reduction of oil-based fuel travel in Delhi would reduce heart disease and stroke by 10-25 percent; and diabetes by 6-17 percent.
  • In the agriculture sector (did you know beef is the biggest carbon emitter of meats?), the study notes that a 30 percent reduction in livestock production is needed to meet global carbon reduction targets. This would reduce heart disease in the UK by around 15 percent 
In short, the environmental improvements shown here are significant and enough to merit action in and of themselves!

Another study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association shows that the American health care sector accounts for nearly a tenth of the U.S. carbon emissions. The study found (not surprisingly) that hospitals are the number 1 source of carbon emissions. The researchers attributed this to high energy demands for temperature control, ventilation and lighting in large medical buildings. The second largest source was the pharmaceutical industry which the authors attributed the high costs of manufacturing and researching drugs in addition to transportation to distribute prescription drugs. Overall, the study found that the health care sector produces 8 percent of the U.S.' carbon emissions.

In an earlier study, released by the World Health Organization,the energy consumption costs of American health care system adds over $600 million in direct health care cost and more than $5 billion in indirect costs.

One of the groups I pay a great deal of attention to is Practice Green Health which is bringing energy efficient and other sustainability projects to hospitals to decrease carbon outputs. Practice Green Health is a network of "individual hospitals, healthcare systems, businesses in the healthcare community and other like-­‐minded stakeholders engaged in the greening of healthcare to improve the health of patients, healthcare workers, and the environment."

With these studies, it is time for health care leaders to do our part to reduce our consumption of energy. It is time for us to be part of the solution, which in turn makes our patients healthier.

November 26, 2009

China announces targets

Ahead of Copenhagen, China sets targets to slow emissions growth | csmonitor.com

They finally came out: "Ten days before a climate change summit opens in Copenhagen, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases announced it would emit between 40 and 45 percent less carbon per unit of economic output by 2020 than it did in 2005." So since legislation and the treaty is at 1990 levels, where does this measure up?

"Between 1990 and 2005, according to official figures, Beijing cut carbon emissions relative to economic activity by 47 percent." But that doesn't seem right - right?! China is now the biggest emitter so how could it be cutting its emissions earlier this decade?

As I suspected, there is a different story here. Check out this graph on the BBC from 2005 which shows China's emissions in 2002.

For better data...when all else fails, go to the Congressional Research Service (CRS). According to CRS:

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (metric tons CO2e) in 2005
China 7,527
United States 7,282

"Using [International Energy Agency (IEA)]’s GHG emission estimates and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, China’s GHG intensity fell more than two-thirds from 1990 to 2005 (whether calculated by GDP using exchange rates or GNI using purchasing power parities)."

"According to IEA estimations of China’s GHG emissions, from 1990 to 2005 the total amount of CO2 increased from 2545 MMTCO2 to 5843 MMTCO2 (almost 144%), while total GHG emissions increased from 3905 MMTCO2e to 7527 MMTCO2e (152%)."

So, 2005 due to the incredible increase in China's growth in greenhouse gas emissions is a better year to set a target than 1990. This is good news! And our lesson here, don't trust official Chinese figures.

Thanksgiving Update!

As I noted yesterday, it is official that the U.S. is committing to targets that are in line with pending federal legislation and President Obama will attend to make this commitment before the world in Copenhagen. The NY Times has a great story on it. Obama to Go to Copenhagen With Emissions Target. Sen. Kerry (D-MA) is calling this a "game changer." I understand his sentiment as the Bush Regime was very against any commitment of any targets, until the end of his Administration. But is it? Maybe for achieving a political accord (Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action - AWG-LCA8) but the Kyoto Protocol (Conference of Parties on the Kyoto Protocol - CMP5; Ad Hoc Working Group for Annex 1 Parties under Kyoto Protocol - AWG-KP10) is stalled without passed American legislation ensuring that not only will the U.S. be a signatory to the accord but they ratified it before its signed off by others. But time will tell. I would love to be wrong.

Now lets talk about setting targets "in the range of” 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050." The League, of which I am a delegate, supports a target of atleast 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-95 percent by 2050. So this is nearly in line with the League's position that is joined by numerous other organizations in the National Call to Action.

So where is COP15 today on the negotiations? In the 174 page Barcelona Report of the AWG-LCA7, the targets are set as such (pp. 64-65):
  • "global emissions must peak by 2015, and then be reduced by more than 85 percent below 1990 levels by 2050"
  • "Parties shall collectively reduce global emissions by atleast 45 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 and by atleast 95 percent from 1990 levels by 2050."
  • "aggregate greenhouse gas emissions by developed country Parties shall be reduced by [25-40] percent by 2020 compared with 1990."
  • "Parties shall further collectively reduce global emissions by 50-85 percent by 2050 compared with the 2000 level."
So what does that bracketed red number in the third bullet mean? Well it means that the target is in negotiation. What is notable here is that President Obama's recommendation of 17 percent is well below the lower negotiated target of 25 percent. It will be very interesting to see where the U.S. negotiators take us. My guess, since I am a betting woman, is that we will end up trying to negotiate lower, get pushed by the EU and end up at 25 percent. Which means that the U.S. will need to change the pending legislation in the Senate (House passed version is 17 percent, the Senate version is 20 percent in 2020). That means that this will all come down to language used in reconciliation as Congressional negotiators come up with one bill between the two chambers.

And what about health care reform? Well it has been confirmed that our Congressional Delegation ("codel" in the COP talk) may be delayed. According to a source from the Majority Leader's office, if the vote is pending on health care reform, the legislators will not be able to go to Copenhagen. This again underscores the importance of Obama attending to demonstrate the American commitment to curb carbon emissions.

And yes, I am loving doing all this analysis and reading long negotiated texts, using all my Model UN skillz and what law school taught me to do when looking at these crazy documents. I am getting a great deal of personal satisfaction out of this! I am a geek that someday will get a real life.

Tomorrow - I will discuss health care and global warming and the two new studies out of the Lancet.

So as this is the Thanksgiving edition, I am truly wishing you and your family a very wonderful Thanksgiving. We all have a great deal to be thankful for. So, like I did when I first moved to Michigan - having been introduced to the idea by a friend of a friend - here are my Gratitudes:

I am grateful for:
  • A healthy family and furry children (first time in a long time);
  • Amazing friends that inspire me every day to do better;
  • A beautiful home where I can play in the sand and watch the setting sun over the ocean any day I like; and
  • The opportunity and God-given ability to help the world in activities such as this and my other volunteer activities.
Happy Thanksgiving!

November 25, 2009

Breaking: Obama going to Copenhagen

Not surprised at all...I expected him to come due to the lack of Senate action. America has to show support for the accord and that we are committed to do something. Luckily, I will be there on the 9th! Yeah!

New doubts on warming, but most favor action - washingtonpost.com

New poll numbers are out - Americans continue to question the validity of science and the recent email scandal isn't helping things. But what I do find heartening about this is that conservatives still do want action on carbon emissions. "Do you think that the U.S. should take action on global warming only if other major industrial countries such as China and India agree to do equally effective things?" 55% of poll respondents (43% among Republicans) said that the U.S. should take action with or without China. This is a really big deal. Now how can we mobilize a nation to start conserving, consuming less and taking to heart their own habits that increase carbon emissions?

Amid charges of global warming hoax, new warning on climate change | csmonitor.com

Incredibly good overview article of where we are today and the new report dubbed "the Copenhagen Diagnosis." That is why I love the Christian Science Monitor. From the article:

"The new report's bottom line: If the goal is to try to hold global average temperatures to an increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, global greenhouse-gas emissions need top out sometime between 2015 and 2020.

"To stabilize the climate around that 2-degree goal, the global economy needs to reduce average carbon-dioxide emissions to less than 1 metric ton per person per year by 2050, the group adds. This is equivalent to cutting per capita emissions by 80 to 95 percent below 2000 levels in developed countries by 2050.

All of the sudden, Obama's tentative commitment of a 17% percent reduction seems kinda paultry.

California update - two items today from home

LA Times story today on Conservation. Always glad to have conservation at the table - but I still wonder why the press isn't covering the most obvious issue for water in California, especially when a new report is speculating "mega droughts" due to climate change for the State. If people are to conserve, they have to know how much water they are using. Water meters are NOT a universal set up in the state. According to my League's former President, Sacramento and the area up in the Delta that is screaming over the smelt, DO NOT have water meters. So how can they know how much water they use? How can government incentivize them to use less? Apparently, we can just ask the residents of Sacramento to turn off the water while they brush their teeth.

If you didn't see it - California's cap and trade proposal came out. Big reading for me over the holiday weekend! But yes, California is TRYING...if only we can get this to stick and other states to follow suit.

November 24, 2009

BBC News - US will announce target for cutting carbon emissions

Breaking news! Good stuff and very much needed: "The target is expected to be in line with figures contained in legislation before the Senate - a reduction of about 17-20% from 2005 levels by 2020."

With funding scant, intersex fish in Potomac remains mystery - washingtonpost.com

Oh Jen's soapbox time.

Many of you probably have not heard why I really went to law school. There are side stories on the rationale, but it really comes down to the book "A Civil Action." The nonfiction novel details how Jan Schlichtmann stumbled onto a toxic tort case, goes bankrupt as he files Anderson v. Cryovac but ends up winning. It is kinda Erin Brockovich but without the boobs.

Why was this book so meaningful to me? I am a science geek, but couldn't handle getting Bs and Cs in college in hard bio classes. Policy was my thing so I got an undergrad in something that I didn't have to go to classes for (yes I am a slacker). Law school was my way of getting ready to use my interests, skills and knowledge to save the world. Only after law school I realized how hard that was and so I am settling for changing it. But that doesn't stop my absolute frustration with toxic torts - they still happen and we as Americans are letting it!

So here is a Story from the Washington Post about male smallmouth bass in the Potomac (a river I would never swim in) that are found to have eggs in their testes. If we have chemicals in our water that make male fish have female traits, gotta wonder what it is doing to other animals and humans drinking from the river and tributaries. Today, here's another story in my parents' state of Michigan:

Tests indicate city water supplies are free of Dow dioxin; neighborhood recontaminated. The EPA has tested Saginaw Bay-area municipal water supplies and found them free of toxic dioxin, but the soil in a residential area 22 miles downstream from Dow’s Midland complex has been recontaminated with dioxin. Michigan Messenger, Michigan.
http://michiganmessenger.com/30699/tests-indicate-city-water-supplies-are-free-of-dow-dioxin-neighborhood-recontaminated

I know I am all about "boiling the ocean" and fixing everything at once, but it is all interrelated. Much of this chemical run off comes from our use and dependence on oil - plastic products; oil refining derivatives (including aspirin - did you know that; we don't get it from birch bark but from oil); and other related products. I often wonder if we really did a study to see what the long term effect of plastic use is on health if we won't find out the root cause to most of America's current health issues.

So, really soon once I figure out how the heck I can do it, I am going to go on a plastic free eating diet. No Ziploc bags. No Tupperware. Only ceramics and glass and metal. Its gonna be hard as we have embraced plastic as our friend and integral to how we eat, but check it out next time in the food aisle when you are getting Lunchables and deli meat. We gotta stop. And consumption leads to trash which emits carbon. The plastic itself is made of oil which emits carbon. When it all comes down to it - a reduced carbon diet should also be a healthy diet. More to come as I investigate this more. Cherrios - you are my continued lobbying target. Take the cereal out of the plastic sleeve!

For more on plastics effect in our lakes, rivers and oceans - check out Strange Days on Planet Earth, Troubled Waters. I cried and cried and cried.

November 23, 2009

Sewers at Capacity, Pollution Spills Into Waterways - Series - NYTimes.com

Sewers at Capacity, Pollution Spills Into Waterways - Series - NYTimes.com Its a consumption problem. As American's we need to stop consuming and wasting so much. Look at old infrastructure, bring it up to today's standards and for god sakes - waste less. Need I remind all Baltimore residents - when a snow flake falls from the sky, your immediate response is to buy toilet paper. WHY?! ;)

Global Warming's Impacts Have Sped Up, Worsened Since Kyoto

Global Warming's Impacts Have Sped Up, Worsened Since Kyoto We have to act now. Our world may not be able to wait a year....but this brings into questions what we as individuals can do. We CAN and SHOULD act without government mandates! Ahh, Jen's talking about a revolution early in the morning (before 6 am PT) with only 1 cup of coffee. Anyone surprised?

Senate Delays Climate Bill to Focus on Health Care

Senate Delays Climate Bill to Focus on Health Care You can bet I will be calling Reid's office today. Even though health care is where I work, I can say that the health care bill is ANYTHING but reform, does nothing to address health care costs, and is a waste of everyone's time (with the bill as currently formatted on the Senate floor and as past by the House). SO - why not deal with SUBSTANTIVE issues, like climate change! Oh, if only Congress would listen to me again! ;) And no, I can't stand not being a lobbyist any more.

November 22, 2009

Copenhagen Climate Change summit: do businesses need to be there? - Telegraph

Copenhagen Climate Change summit: do businesses need to be there? - TelegraphA different take - always love the British point of view to keep me honest. And yes, business has to be a huge part of the solution to reduce carbon emissions! Why? Because most carbon emissions come from BUILDINGS - ones that often house business.

Miranda Kennedy -- The Indian attitude on climate change - washingtonpost.com

Miranda Kennedy -- The Indian attitude on climate change - washingtonpost.com "Like many in India, he draws a bright line between India's "survival emissions," from burning energy to produce food, for instance, and American-style "luxury emissions," from things like SUVs and central air conditioning." Good overview of India's position and why they are not backing off their current emissions. Simply, it comes down to the simple fact - Americans have gotta make carbon emission "cool" and cheap.

Bill McKibben -- Obama should act urgently on climate change - washingtonpost.com

Bill McKibben -- Obama should act urgently on climate change - washingtonpost.comMy secret hope is that heath care will be addressed by the Senate, move to reconciliation and Congress will seriously take up the domestic legislation on climate change. Otherwise, COP15 is just a stage-gate and no longer such a really really important meeting. Quote of the day: "But doing more than George W. Bush on global warming is like doing more than George Wallace on racial healing."

In the trenches on climate change, hostility among foes - washingtonpost.com

In the trenches on climate change, hostility among foes - washingtonpost.com What I find most interesting is that the only academics and politicians that question the scientific validity of Climate Change are Americans. Notable - in the WSJ version of this story, they paint it this way: "A partial review of the emails shows that in many cases, climate scientists revealed that their own research wasn't always conclusive. In others, they discussed ways to paper over differences among themselves in order to present a "unified" view on climate change. On at least one occasion, climate scientists were asked to "beef up" conclusions about climate change and extreme weather events because environmental officials in one country were planning a "big public splash." I can't say I see a "liberal bias" on this coverage...

Announcing Jen's blog for COP15!

I promised that I would blog for the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change - and I am actually going to do it! So Eric, here is the first and possibly only time I am going to blog for several days straight!

To keep up with my posts, you can subscribe for notices. Just hit the subscribe button at the bottom of the post (by the comments area).

I actually don't leave until December 4, but here I will post parts of my research, what I am told the experience is going to be like and my concerns about the Conference.

None of the comments here represent the official position of the League of Women Voters of the United States.

Recent media coverage of my trip: Is your city green? Sierra Club on the hunt to find out (Orange County Register)

Announcement of delegation by the League of Women Voters
LWV recently secured its official Observer status for the United Nations Framework Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen this December. The following League members were selected to serve as delegates to the conference: Carole Conors, (MD), Chair of the LWV Lobby Corps; Sarah Diefendorf, former LWVUS Board member and Chair of the Climate Change Task Force (CA); Ellyn Murphy, (WA), LWVUS Climate Change Task Force; Jennifer Searfoss,(CA); Ellen (Mel) Bromberg, (WI); Claire Vanderslice, (WI);and Lauralee Barbaria, (CA). All of these delegates have taken an active role in working on climate change issues both for the LWV and in their professional work; they are making this trip at their own expense as representatives of the LWV. Special thanks to Doris Schapira, LWV UN Observer, for her work in navigating the successful application process. We are proud to have our own delegation on the ground keeping us informed!